In the below excerpt of our fireside chat with Bob Lefsetz, analyst and critic of “The Lefsetz Letter”, Bob dives into the tricky relationship between streaming numbers and live show ticket sales. He starts by acknowledging a reality that many in the music industry know all too well: just because an artist has impressive streaming stats, it doesn’t mean they’ll pack a venue.

Take a look at the excerpt below, plus a breakdown of tips for talent buyers at independent venues. (You can watch the full fireside chat here!)

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Streaming Success Doesn't Always Equal Ticket Sales

In the clip, Lefsetz points out that while someone like Sam Smith went directly from streaming success to selling out stadiums, that's the exception rather than the rule. Most artists, especially those in genres like pop and hip-hop that dominate streaming platforms like Spotify, may not have the same impact when it comes to ticket sales. He stresses that streaming numbers can be misleading, especially since some genres, like rock and hard rock, don’t always perform as well on streaming services as others, but can still draw large crowds for live shows.

Digging Deeper: How to Evaluate Streaming Data for Booking Decisions

Lefsetz advises talent buyers to dig deeper than just the top streaming tracks. An artist with multiple songs racking up millions of streams definitely has something going for them, but for those with only tens of thousands of streams, it’s a gamble. He also mentions that sometimes a track's popularity can be driven by unique factors like being featured on a popular show, which might not translate into a loyal fanbase willing to buy concert tickets.

Bottom Line for Talent Buyers at Independent Venues:

Don’t Rely Solely on Streaming Numbers: Look beyond the surface. Just because an artist is trending on Spotify doesn’t mean they’ll sell out your venue. Consider their overall visibility and how engaged their fanbase really is.

Pay Attention to Genre Trends: Some genres, like rock or hard rock, may not stream as well but still draw strong live audiences. Don't discount an artist just because their streaming numbers aren't as high as pop or hip-hop acts.

Context Matters: If an artist has one track with millions of streams, investigate why. Was it featured in a popular show or commercial? This could mean their popularity is more of a momentary spike rather than sustained interest.

Assess Their Social Presence: Streaming is just one piece of the puzzle. A strong social media presence, active fan engagement, and solid performance history can be better indicators of whether an artist will sell tickets at your venue.

By taking a more holistic approach, you can make more informed booking decisions that better align with your venue’s audience and business goals.