The live music industry has always been a high-stakes game, but the turbulence of the past year has raised the stakes even higher. As we look toward 2025, one theme stands out: success lies in separating the “must-sees” from the “might-sees.”

The Must-See vs. Might-See Paradigm

Matt Smith, talent buyer at the UC Theatre in Berkeley, put it succinctly in a recent panel: “We’ve come into the world of must-sees and might-sees. Your must-sees are going to do well, and your might-sees are a crapshoot.” This perspective underscores the need for venues and promoters to critically evaluate their bookings and focus on the artists that are sure to draw enthusiastic crowds.

Watch the full recording of the 2024 year recap panel Smith was on with fellow independent venue owners here.

The industry has seen an increase in risk-taking over the past year, with many hoping to replicate the success of 2023’s "revenge spending" on live events. But as the second half of 2024 proved, good times don’t always roll on schedule.

Leveraging Data to Make Smarter Decisions

One key to reducing the uncertainty around might-sees is better use of data. Venue operators should track:

• Historical performance data: What did the artist’s last tour look like in your market? Did it sell out, or were tickets slow to move?
• Audience demographics: Are the artist’s fans in your area likely to spend on tickets, food, and beverage? What does their social media engagement suggest about local demand?
• Market conditions: Are there major competing events or economic factors, like a big game, or like we saw in 2024, an election season, that could affect attendance?

Using this kind of granular data can make the difference between a profitable risk and a costly gamble.

Building Partnerships for Success

Collaboration is another essential strategy. As Steven Chilton from Rebel Lounge noted, “Our job is to do what’s right for the artist, and sometimes that means working with other venues or promoters to ensure the best outcome.” Independent venues can build stronger relationships with local promoters to share insights, split risks, and secure better deals.

Strong partnerships can also lead to co-promotion opportunities and help smaller venues keep their connection to emerging artists as they rise through the ranks.

Adjusting Deal Structures

With operational costs rising and audience behaviors shifting, many venues are rethinking how they approach artist deals. Matt Smith pointed out the importance of adjusting terms: “I’m pushing back really hard on people asking for more money. I’m giving up shows if the numbers don’t make sense. It’s about fighting for better terms, like lower guarantees and sharing the backend risk.”

This approach helps ensure that venues don’t overextend themselves on might-sees, preserving resources for must-sees and other critical investments.

What Does This Mean for 2025?

The future will continue to bring unpredictability, but venues that prioritize must-sees, leverage data, and build strong partnerships will be better positioned to thrive. The pendulum of audience behavior will eventually swing back toward stability, but in the meantime, smarter risk management will separate the winners from the rest.